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Peter Henry Zeihan (; born January 18, 1973) is an American author on geopolitics. He previously worked for the geopolitical advising firm Stratfor.Denning, Liam (December 3, 2014). "The Coming Hobbesian World." Review of The Accidental Superpower, by Peter Zeihan. Wall Street Journal. Retrieved December 3, 2014. Zeihan is the author of several books, including The Absent Superpower (2017), Disunited Nations (2020), and The End of the World Is Just the Beginning (2022).
Zeihan left Stratfor in 2012 and founded Zeihan on Geopolitics, a consulting firm. His clients have included energy companies, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural organizations, universities, and government entities.
In 2014 he released The Accidental Superpower, which examines the impact of geography on a state's economic, industrial, and military competitiveness. The book discusses the strategic advantages of navigable rivers, ocean access, and transportation infrastructure, alongside demographic projections. Using maps, Zeihan discusses the critical importance of navigable rivers, access to oceans, and reliable road and rail networks. The Accidental Superpower also uses demographic calculations of national populations to forecast how different countries will maintain an edge in the geopolitical future.
A common critique is that Zeihan’s scenarios assume inevitability, disregarding the unpredictability of global events and technological innovation.
Some analysts argue that Zeihan does not fully account for factors like increased longevity and productivity, particularly in his assessments of economic and demographic sustainability. For instance, his projections regarding China’s decline have been criticized for not considering potential reforms in pension systems and government fiscal policies.
In the 2023 update of his book The Accidental Superpower, Zeihan added an appendix to each chapter of the original 2013 edition, evaluating the accuracy of his earlier predictions. Among other notes, he acknowledged that he underestimated the role of Canadian national identity in Alberta’s political alignment and overestimated Russia’s military capabilities.
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